From the monthly archives:

July 2011

rupert murdoch world economic forum

It’s been great to see the phone hacking scandal come to a head after so long when the issues of journalist ethics and unaccountable media power have been under the carpet. But, as the story unfolds, you have to wonder whether the resulting environment will be much improved. If Murdoch follows his decision to shut the NOTW to its logical conclusion by selling his other UK titles (as several commentators have said he might), it is hard to see new owners investing heavily in loss-making outlets, and generally maintaining standards. Newspapers, such as the Times, will still face the problem of producing good work with few resources – only now they’ll have even fewer resources.

For all his commercial nous, Murdoch has had a twilight-years sentimentality for print that successive owners are unlikely to share. Whatever its shortcomings, News International has been subsidising half the UK press over the last decade, and replacing that won’t be easy. As Peter Preston says, the most likely buyers for Murdoch’s papers are Russian oligarchs, Arab Sheiks, and Richard “Dirty” Desmond – none of whom would be first-choice proprietors:

The assumption of so much speculation now is that plurality will be rescued only when Murdoch walks away. An alternative outcome is that plurality will shrivel even more as at least three papers drop out of the market.

I don’t automatically think keeping old newspapers alive is the only way to ensure healthy journalism. Far from it. That is an argument mostly put around by journalists and managers at old newspapers, who have every incentive to present themselves as the last, best hope for free speech and democracy. There are other sorts of organisations that could emerge to take the place of newspapers, which may do a better job of holding the powerful to account (and without making themselves powers in their own right). It may be that Murdoch’s departure from the UK (if it happens) hastens a process by which artificially-supported groups are forced to close, or forced to find new business models, and new market entrants can get a start. It may be in the long-run that this scandal is an unalloyed good thing for journalism, forcing an all-round re-appraisal among providers and consumers. More immediately, though, the effect may be a net-negative, forcing titles, such as News International’s, to cut back or dumb down. There may be less diversity, not more.

That is not an argument for laying off Murdoch in the hope that he stays in the UK. He deserves everything he is getting at the moment; it’s been a long time coming. It is to say that his presence in London hasn’t been all-bad. His record is more complicated than some have made it out to be, and we shouldn’t expect things to magically get better if he does leave. New, unaccountable, individuals could replace him, abusing their power as before, enabled by politicians looking for advantage (the dynamics haven’t changed). Most fundamentally, the media still needs to go from its currently shaky position to something more sustainable, both economically and socially. That task becomes more urgent if Murdoch leaves, but it is the same job.

(Image: World Economic Forum)

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Inside the cyber bubble

July 13, 2011

A piece I wrote for openDemocracy about the boom in cyber-security. I argue that the threat is real, but there is also a danger of exaggeration, wasting vast amounts of government resources, and harming the Internet as we know it:

The Pentagon’s “Defense Strategy for Operating in Cyberspace” (May 2011) says the US now regards online espionage as “acts of war” that necessitate conventional as well as cyber-reponses. An official told the Wall Street Journal: “If you shut down our power grid, maybe we will put a missile down one of your smokestacks.” There is now routine talk among analysts of the internet as a fourth theatre – after land, sea, and air.

The risk-cost dynamic

But not everyone is convinced: either that the threat is as serious as advertised, or that the response – both very costly, and increasingly militarised – is warranted. Jerry Brito, co-author of a report for the Mercatus Center at George Mason University, which compares cyber-fear rhetoric to that leading up to the Iraq war, is one. “We’re not doing a proper risk analysis based on what is likely to happen. What we’re doing is saying ‘what is the worst possible thing that could happen, and then saying we’ve got to prepare for it’,” he says.

Moreover, critics of the militarisation of cyberspace argue that it conflates different threats (crime, military, intelligence) while distorting and exaggerating the overall danger. Brito and his colleague Tate Watkins concede that cyberspace holds some dangers, particularly for the safety of corporate assets; but they point to the risks of over-reaction, including the potential to waste taxpayers’ money, sacrifice online liberties, and impair the freedoms the internet affords.

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Delingpole in D.C

July 8, 2011

Watch live streaming video at livestream.com

I was going to say something like “what a dick”, but I’ll leave it to you to decide. James Delingpole is of course one of the UK’s leading climate change skeptics (‘deniers’ is a better word). More from a whole conference of deniers here, here, and here, if you can bare it.

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leader top

So much good stuff today re: News of the World phone hacking scandal, but particularly liked this, taking apart the Times’ leader. As Damian Thompson points out, the article — headed “The Practice of Journalism” — is a pretty naked attempt to spread the blame around, when nearly all the allegations centre on News International (owner of the Times):

Let’s go through the article. It begins:

There is no doubt that journalists are today in their version of the MPs’ expenses scandal.

Really? I think you’ll find that it is News International journalists and executives, not other newspapers, who are today in their version of the MPs’ expenses scandal.

Before today … we have sought to report the story [the issue of phone hacking] straight, in good faith, without taking any editorial view.

The Times has reported the story “straight, in good faith”?

That’s news to me. I can’t find very much reporting of the News International phone hacking scandals, and neither can the Guardian’s Roy Greenslade. He wrote on his blog in March:

For months, The Times (which used to claim it was “the paper of record”) has failed to report on the many revelations about the phone-hacking scandal at its sister publication, the News of the World.

(my itals)

As the story progresses from Guardian fixation to mainstream scandal, it will be interesting to see how much the papers start to go after each other. There are two reasons why it has taken five years for the story to unravel — one being that papers have run a “system of omerta” where they don’t discuss each other’s affairs (presumably fearing retribution). With the British public so enraged, that may now change — though I wouldn’t bet on it. Probably we’ll see a few days of outrage, before normality returns.

The other reason is the “Murdoch-Westminster complex”, which has cowed the party in power (first Labour, now Conservative) from supporting a full investigation. It’s good to see some discussion of this relationship, and its impact on British life. But it’s hard to see even this scandal affecting the basic power dynamics. Though the new-media has dented him a little, Murdoch will still be able to sway the next election. And the parties continue to know that.

(BTW, I’ve gotten hot and bothered about this before).

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Nuclear story

July 5, 2011

Something I wrote for the FT about the nuclear industry. Basically it’s full steam ahead, despite Fukushima. While several countries have ditched nuclear (Italy, Thailand, Egypt, Germany, and Switzerland), the big boys (Russia, China, India, South Korea) are going forward. The industry still foresees massive skills shortages – which business schools, and others, are trying to fill. Even if countries are not planning to build any more units, they’ll need people to decommission plants. Hopefully, the introduction of professional managers will see some of the new-build projects delivered on-time and budget. Probably not a single plant, constructed anywhere, can say that up to now. They are all late, and all more expensive than they are supposed to be.

Here, btw, is George Monbiot’s latest rationale for nuclear power, in case you missed it. I endorse it. If we care about climate change, and want to keep the lights on, we have no option but to embrace nuclear. The anti-arguments are irrational. The question is how to do properly, avoiding the mistakes of the past.

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(go to 4.30 to bypass preamble)

I’m someone who has become more and more pessimistic about Israel in the last few years, and less and less sympathetic to its leaders. The intransigence of Netanyahu’s government, and the apparent insouciance of the Israeli population amid so much injustice and hardship, has done a lot to turn me off, and, like others, I’ve become fearful of what Israel could become.

Without agreement with the Palestinians, it has seemed that Israel would inevitably become more dysfunctional and unfair: a denier of rights at home and on the West Bank, and a pariah abroad.

Of course, though, nothing is inevitable. This interview with Tzipi Livni (from last week’s Aspen Ideas Fest) gives me hope, first because Livni is articulate, funny, and warm, like some Israeli leaders past: she has emotional intelligence, as well as political nous. And, second, because she understands the urgency of now, and the unsustainability of the current situation (she says at one point, “there is no status quo”).

The interview brought home to me the extent of the differences in Israeli politics. Livni, who heads Israel’s biggest opposition party Kadima, says towards the end: “I’m convinced that the price of having an agreement is cheaper than not having an agreement”, adding that her greatest contrast with Netanyahu is that he doesn’t believe the price is worth paying.

I assumed that Israeli politicians were on a continuum, disagreeing about many things, but all ultimately interested in the same thing: a lasting peace agreement. What Livni is saying is something else: effectively, that one side wants to make a deal, and the other side doesn’t; and that the details are secondary (especially as the outlines have already been settled).

Netanyahu’s fiction — which he perpetuates because he has to — is that his government is willing to negotiate. As Livni points out, this isn’t really true. Under any foreseeable circumstances that would align with his worldview, keep his coalition together, and somehow satisfy the Palestinians, it’s impossible. Only someone like Livni, who actually believes in negotiations, can bring peace. Hopefully, before too long, she’ll get the chance.

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When I read this headline I thought it was referring to the company’s profits:

Cisco: Cyber Crime Not as Profitable Anymore

But no, it’s a story about hackers’ profits:

Cisco estimates that mass attackers will rake in about $300 million in profits this year — a significant difference from the $1 billion or so Cisco thinks the criminals made each year in 2009 and 2010.

I’ll bet that companies like Cisco have seen a sizeable increase in profits. The cyber-security market is growing fast on the back of numerous breaches, heightened alarm, and – yes – effective marketing by IT and defense companies. This report estimates worldwide sales of $80 billion by 2017. I’ve seen other estimates for $140 billion by decade’s-end.

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Entertaining dialogue about Terrence Malick and his film The Tree of Life:

But then, somewhere about forty-five minutes to an hour in, I began to feel a sense of physical revulsion that took me another hour to notice on a conscious, we’ll say intellectual level. By the time I reached the final five minutes and the endless end-credit crawl, I had just about managed to bring these feelings to the stage of verbalization. I realized—and it was an organic realization—that I hated this movie with a near-religious intensity.

An appropriate sort (even if I didn’t share it).

Yes, a hatred so vital and subterranean that it very nearly tunneled through into hysterical adoration. I think I might have loathed and abhorred the movie, which must surely be considered an “art film,” as I have never loathed any of the cheap compromises or outright insults that commercial filmmaking, by contrast, has before perpetrated upon my eyes and mind.

I thought the family scenes were well played, and shot. The rest was excruciating. I wanted to appreciate the man’s ambition, but just ended up annoyed.

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This speech by Bank of England official Andrew Haldene about “short-termism” looks highly important and profound. Unfortunately it is also way above my brain-power to describe, analyse, or critique in any way. (Here is a news story, and press release if you want to have a go).

I will say that the point of markets is actually to provide investment capital for companies and governments, presumably so they can make useful things, or put up bridges, schools, etc. If the markets are not able to provide the money for these socially-important things – because they are only interested in short-term gains – that’s a problem.

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The very intelligent Greg Lindsey has a useful round-up of the state of lithium supplies – the key ingredient in tomorrow’s cars. His message essentially is that there is not much to worry about, if we look for new sources, and innovate car technology. Still, he says the dash for deposits is likely to empower anti-Westerners:

Fortunately for GM and Toyota, Chile’s and Argentina’s lithium deposits are open for business. But the largest lies across the border in Bolivia, containing anywhere from 9 million (the official U.S. estimate) to a credulity-straining 100 million tons of lithium. Bolivia’s president Evo Morales (left) is no friend of the U.S., however; he pals around with Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez and Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. He once expelled the U.S. ambassador and likes to end speeches with the rallying cry, “Death to the Yankees!”

People talk a lot about “energy independence” in the post-oil world – but this is, of course, a pipe-dream. We’ll be just as dependent on other countries, maybe more. The world is becoming more inter-dependent, remember! The materials may change, but the risks will stay, in some form.

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