Notes from NH

I spent a couple days in New Hampshire for the primaries, my first experience of the campaign trail, or NH. Here are a few impressions, in no order:

1– It’s harder to dislike candidates when you see them close-up, and harder to disagree with them. I found myself nodding in agreement with Rick Santorum several times; hard to imagine I would do that watching him on TV. Strange how someone can seem so nice (he wears these cuddly sleeveless sweaters) – yet have such dangerous views, bigoted views.

2– It’s hokey-cokey to say, but people in New Hampshire take their politics seriously, even passionately. I imagined that after weeks of leafleting and canvassing, most NHers would be jaded by now. But everywhere I went – coffee shops, convenience stores, hotels, bars – people were talking candidates, positions, and tactics. Hard to imagine the equivalent in, say, some rural area of the UK. File under: enduring American patriotism, optimism, etc.

3– NH is beautiful. Beautiful, beautiful, beautiful.

4– The only interesting question as far as the primaries: what Ron Paul does. Romney is going to win, because he’s the best candidate (as in best funded, organized, prepared). The rest will drop out sooner or later, having no further impact. Ron Paul’s influence will go on, though, especially if he runs as a third candidate. Speaking to his supporters at the post-poll party on Tuesday night, it seemed unlikely they would get behind an establishment candidate like Romney, or concede that their views are marginal to the general election. They believe they are saving the republic, and they absolutely adore Paul. How can they back down when there’s so much at stake? If he is a third candidate, that would surely scramble Romney’s chances, but potentially put a dent in Obama’s numbers too. Cliche but true: disaffected voters on Left and Right have a lot in common. And there’s a lot in Paul’s program, particularly around the GWOT and civil liberties, that former Obamaites can support (see recent Glenn Greenwald).

5– ‘Live Free or Die’ is a pretty weird motto for a state. Apparently it was coined during the Revolutionary War by a hero called General John Stark, then taken up by the state’s legislature during the Second World War. Now it’s supposed to have something to do with low taxes, and minimal regulation, at least according to the Republicans (which equate freedom to a lack of government). That NH still has the motto, and are proud of it, points to the sense that NHers feel the fight is ongoing: the war for freedom is endless, and wasn’t settled with the modern arrangements of the US.

6– It’s all about the media, but the media don’t acknowledge it. I don’t have statistics, but I bet the campaigns spend as much time persuading the media they are doing well, as trying to do well. The media have a enormous role in deciding who’s up and down; at several events, there seemed to be more journalists than actual citizens; their views go in cycles; and they have a pack mentality. A story in a major paper is a major campaign event, yet the story doesn’t acknowledge its own role, keeping up the charade that it is simply reporting on what’s going on out there. All very “meta”, etc.

7– The media have an interest in keeping the race tight, because a tight race is good for business. How much was the rise and fall of Bachmann/Perry/Cain/Gingrich/Santorum as contenders to Romney driven by the media’s need for some kind of contest? In the end, NH followed a predictable and typical script where the favorite ended up winning. How much of what happened in between was genuine fluctuations in support, and how much was the result of the media in some sense orchestrating fluctuations, so they had something to report on? I’m not saying it’s completely willful. But the media has an interest, and it is tended to, somehow.

8– Primaries are great for local economies. The guy at J Dubs coffee house in Manchester said his business was booming, and that he wished the primary could happen on all the time. Where would the main streets of Concord or Exeter be without elections every four years? More here.

9– Favourite quote: Ann Romney at McKelvie Intermediate School in Bedford on Monday, recounting the conversation she’d had with her husband on whether to run: “I only had one question: Can you turn America around? And he said: yes.” Somewhere between the end of “around” and “he said”, I remember thinking: “She’s not really going to say that, is she?” But she did. It’s the sort of thing that grates an Englishman: the shamelessness of it, the untruth: everyone knows Romney has been running since he lost last time. The Romneys didn’t decide last year, as Ann said.

10– Romney appears plastic and wooden on TV, but human in person – worryingly so for Obama. That’s dangerous for Obama, because if Romney can “connect” with voters, he might win. The best chance for the Democrats is paint Romney as a Kerry or Gore: the son of privilege, and out of touch. Also, supporters genuinely like Romney, maybe not to the same degree or volume as they like Paul or Obama, but enough. Their support is emotional, as well as reverential.

(Image: dougtone)